Local Recovery Solidifies, While Global Uncertainty Continues

First of all, I am very pleased to have assumed the role of CEO for Zagga. I have an extensive background in executive roles within the banking and property sectors. Capitalising on this background, knowledge and networks I am looking forward to growing Zagga to the next stage, essentially through ensuring Zagga provides an exemplary customer experience.

To that end I also take responsibility should that experience be left wanting, as was the case with the initial recent move to the new platform. It is acknowledged that the experience was frustrating for some and this was communicated to us. I can assure you issues have been corrected and improvement is a continuum. Thank you for your patience and valued feedback.

Market-wise, the last couple of months have been relatively quiet in terms of investment opportunities through Zagga, a reflection of the residential property market in general. It is noted that REINZ data for July shows on average that houses took 16 days longer to sell than the same time a year ago. Nationwide sales in July were down 37% from a year earlier, consumer confidence levels were low, throw in the winter weather and poor All Black performances and you can understand why there is a bit of gloom and lack of activity.

Notwithstanding this, there are positives signs starting to show. A number of commentators  are now of the view that we will not fall into a recession and that activity within the residential property market will pick up in spring.

As Tony Alexander noted in his recent report  “”Some of the inflation expectations measures tracked by the Reserve Bank have edged down recently, global prices are falling for a wide range of commodities including oil, minerals, and food, and the pace of wages growth so far in the New Zealand economy is not high enough to warrant concerns about a wage-price spiral developing. There is also a wave of discounting likely to come soon from retailers quitting excess stocks.” Given this,  Tony expressed the view that the Reserve Bank will possibly start cutting the OCR from most likely 4% before the end of 2023

In addition, it is noted unemployment remains at record lows and this is unlikely to change. Most industries are in fact experiencing staff shortages.

In light of the anticipated swing in confidence and improving economic indicators, I anticipate significant opportunities to be presented on the Zagga platform over coming months, so keep an eye out for updates, as we expect they’ll be funded quickly.

The latest GPD data is out, and at 0.2% growth in the last three months of 2025, it’s risen for three out of the past four quarters. We’re into annual growth for the first time since the third quarter of 2024, which is a hopeful signal that local conditions are improving.

The latest data shows solid increases in retail and accommodation sectors, finance and insurance, media and comms, and arts and recreation. Construction under performed, but data from January and February 2026 looks more positive for the sector, so overall the picture here in New Zealand is encouraging.

The looming concern is the global oil crisis, and the headlines seem alarming. But we’ve been reading some pretty frightening headlines every week since 2020, and we all just keep on going. What can you do in these uncertain times? The best advice is not to panic. If you have an investment strategy that’s taking you toward your financial goals, stay calm and talk to your adviser before you make any sudden moves. As ASB’s analysts point out, “the average conflict results in a very short-term drawdown of roughly 5% (using the S&P500 as a proxy), with the market recovering its losses over an average of 47 days.”

In the longer term, this fuel crisis might have an upside. If it encourages a faster shift to renewables, that will improve New Zealand’s energy security and make us less vulnerable to these oil shocks in future. ANZ is reporting more interest in EVs, and BYD says it’s had a bumper few weeks. The national grid reached a record high of 96.4% renewable in the latest data, a new record, so the decarbonisation megatrend is continuing its onward march here in New Zealand.

In response to the picture both here and abroad, the big banks have been nudging up their interest rates, leading to higher returns for savers. Term deposit rates are up marginally, but still below 4%. Returns on Zagga loans have also stayed steady, and have been consistently paying around 7%. We’re seeing rapid uptake on new opportunities, and we expect this continue throughout 2026 – particularly as momentum grows in the construction sector.

We’ve seen a noticeable increase in both the volume and quality of loan investments coming through this month, and we’re excited to be bringing these new opportunities to our investors. With strong demand and quick uptake on new listings, it’s important to be prepared so you can take advantage of opportunities as they become available.