Signs of Improvement: What 2026 Could Mean for Investors

For many, “survive to 25” became “survive to 26”, as the hangover from the downturn dragged on and the market spent much of the year in wait-and-see mode.

However, economists are now seeing encouraging signs of improvement. ASB notes that 40–50% of fixed home loans are set to re-price over the coming months, which should improve household cashflow and help support spending, business confidence, and hiring.

Lower interest rates are also beginning to signal a potential turning point in New Zealand’s residential building cycle. Residential building consents have been trending higher for several months and are now up around 7% year-on-year, with the lift led by Auckland and supported by gains in Canterbury, Otago, and Wellington.

While building activity is likely to remain near current levels in the short term, a strengthening pipeline suggests residential construction could begin lifting through 2026.

Despite ongoing global uncertainty and an election year locally, we remain confident the underlying fundamentals are improving. This should support increasing volumes of quality lending and investment opportunities, alongside strengthening security as property prices stabilise.

For investors, this backdrop is becoming increasingly relevant, particularly with bank term deposits now below 4%. In 2026, our focus will be on new originations and quality loan investments so new investors have more choice across their portfolio, and existing investors can reinvest repaid funds quickly to keep capital working. Investors should also keep in mind that as the OCR and deposit rates continue to trend down, Zagga investment rates are expected to follow over time.

As we move through the year, we’re also focused on continued investment in our lending and investments portal, alongside new products to support our next phase of growth.