Local Recovery Solidifies, While Global Uncertainty Continues

Liquidity is the answer to the question: ‘How easily can I sell this investment for its market price?’

If you had to fake your own death in two days’ time, how much cash could you scrounge up to take with you to your new life in Bali? You could take all the money in your bank accounts and probably your shares – but none of your property equity or term deposits. It all depends on the liquidity of your investments.

What influences liquidity?

Liquidity depends on several factors:

  • How easily you can sell the investment – is there a marketplace to sell it?
  • What’s the demand – will lots of people want to buy it, and be able to buy it?
  • Is it fungible – is it worth the same amount to everybody or does it depend on their personal passion for this type of item?
  • Will you lose money – if you had to sell in a hurry, would you get the market price or would you have to take a discounted price?
  • How complicated it is to sell the investment – can it be done quickly or will there be a massive amount of hassle and paperwork?

From highly liquid to highly illiquid

Here are some examples of various investments and their liquidity:

Liquidity levelDescriptionExample  
Highly liquid    You can use it immediately, trade it instantly, and everybody wants it.Cash
   
LiquidYou can easily sell it for the market price, but it’s not cash. Stocks and bonds   Shares  
Somewhat illiquid      You can sell it fairly easily, but it takes time and there are some hoops to jump through.Residential property
   
Illiquid    A limited market; you need to find the right buyer to get the full value.NFTs and artwork
   
Highly illiquidHard to sell – it will take time and considerable effort to find the right buyer.Privately owned businesses

How liquid is your portfolio?

Liquid assets are your safety net. It’s why every financial adviser will tell you to have an emergency savings account, ready whenever you need it. When you need money fast, to repair your fridge or car, for instance, you can pay immediately without having to sell or borrow.

Part of the value of any investment is its liquidity. The longer your money is tied up, the higher the potential returns need to be to justify this loss of liquidity. That’s why term deposits are laddered according to time: the longer the term, the higher the interest rate.

Lack of liquidity is what makes it complicated to buy a house with three friends – how do you sell quarter of a house if you decide you want out? It’s similar with privately-owned businesses and some peer-to-peer lending products; low liquidity reduces the value.

But keeping all your funds in cash would obviously be a poor financial decision, because cash earns almost nothing and its value is rapidly being eroded by inflation. Some illiquid investments can have very high returns in the long run, such as privately-owned businesses.

A secondary market for Zagga loans

Zagga have launched a secondary market for Zagga loans which will increase the liquidity of your investment. It means that if you want to sell your investment in a Zagga loan before the term is over, you can list it on our secondary market and sell it to another investor. The returns for the new owner will be the same as for the old owner – the terms and conditions remain the same.

There will be some advantages to buying loans on the secondary market. You won’t need to wait for the loan to be 100% funded, it will be available immediately. You’ll also have more history and information on the loan since the borrower will already have been making repayments for some time. You might find this gives you more confidence that they will keep paying. However, the loan term will only be whatever is left when the original investor sells, so you won’t make as much as if you bought in initially.

If you would like to know more about our secondary market, do get in touch and we’ll be happy to talk to you about all the potential risks, benefits and opportunities.

The latest GPD data is out, and at 0.2% growth in the last three months of 2025, it’s risen for three out of the past four quarters. We’re into annual growth for the first time since the third quarter of 2024, which is a hopeful signal that local conditions are improving.

The latest data shows solid increases in retail and accommodation sectors, finance and insurance, media and comms, and arts and recreation. Construction under performed, but data from January and February 2026 looks more positive for the sector, so overall the picture here in New Zealand is encouraging.

The looming concern is the global oil crisis, and the headlines seem alarming. But we’ve been reading some pretty frightening headlines every week since 2020, and we all just keep on going. What can you do in these uncertain times? The best advice is not to panic. If you have an investment strategy that’s taking you toward your financial goals, stay calm and talk to your adviser before you make any sudden moves. As ASB’s analysts point out, “the average conflict results in a very short-term drawdown of roughly 5% (using the S&P500 as a proxy), with the market recovering its losses over an average of 47 days.”

In the longer term, this fuel crisis might have an upside. If it encourages a faster shift to renewables, that will improve New Zealand’s energy security and make us less vulnerable to these oil shocks in future. ANZ is reporting more interest in EVs, and BYD says it’s had a bumper few weeks. The national grid reached a record high of 96.4% renewable in the latest data, a new record, so the decarbonisation megatrend is continuing its onward march here in New Zealand.

In response to the picture both here and abroad, the big banks have been nudging up their interest rates, leading to higher returns for savers. Term deposit rates are up marginally, but still below 4%. Returns on Zagga loans have also stayed steady, and have been consistently paying around 7%. We’re seeing rapid uptake on new opportunities, and we expect this continue throughout 2026 – particularly as momentum grows in the construction sector.

We’ve seen a noticeable increase in both the volume and quality of loan investments coming through this month, and we’re excited to be bringing these new opportunities to our investors. With strong demand and quick uptake on new listings, it’s important to be prepared so you can take advantage of opportunities as they become available.