Local Recovery Solidifies, While Global Uncertainty Continues

News headlines can be depressing and can often give you yet another reason to feel pessimistic about the future. From climate change to trade wars to brain drain, there seems to be a never-ending cycle of negative stories to draining all the enthusiasm out of you.

Why is all the news so grim? Partly it’s just how we’re wired – we’re naturally interested in learning how to avoid threats. Bad news gets more attention than good news. Any financial YouTuber will tell you that scaremongering thumbnails like ‘Why the market WILL crash THIS YEAR!’ get far more clicks than positive thumbnails like ‘Renewable energy boom continues’.

It’s enough to make you want to put your money in the bank and never take a risk. But that will cost you. As American tech exec and investor Nat Friedman put it: “Pessimists sound smart, optimists make money.”

Sitting on the Sidelines is Risky

Avoiding threats has kept humans alive for millennia. But in the modern world, filled with an endless stream of alarming headlines, all we hear about is negative news. This makes it hard to have the confidence to invest for a brighter future. Every investment comes with risk, from share market crashes to potential tenancy problems with a rental property. If you think too hard about the potential downside of an investment, it’s easy to talk yourself into believing the risk is too great.

For pessimists, the answer is to avoid certain investments, or even avoid investing all together. After all, if you think the world is collapsing around us, why bother investing for the future at all? Instead, you can do nothing. You can put your money in the bank and leave it there. It’s about as safe as it can be, your balance won’t fall by even a single cent, and nobody will take it away from you. You can sit on the sidelines, congratulating yourself every time there’s a market downturn. You’ve avoided risk and you get to feel clever – you knew things were going to hell in a handbasket!

Despite the enjoyment you might feel at being right, being too pessimistic to invest means you face another, quite likely, risk: the risk of not having enough to enjoy your retirement. Fearfully avoiding all risk means your money won’t grow. It will be eroded by inflation and you will miss out on enormous potential gains.

Human Progress Drives Growth

Investment is the best and most reliable way to grow your wealth. Over the long run, the share market keeps going up and house prices keep steadily rising. Why does this happen? Human progress.

Humans are incredible. We have an astonishing ability to solve problems, improve productivity and raise our standards of living. It might feel as though the world is getting worse all the time. But in fact, in 1820 around 75% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, and that number has fallen to just 10%. Global literacy has risen from 12% in 1820 to 87% today. For most of history, around 50% of newborns died; by 2020 that had fallen to 4%.

This is the result of economic growth, technological advancement and more goods and services available to more people. It leads to industries growing, businesses booming, and a steadily rising stock market over time. Asset prices increase, wages rise, and wealth grows. If you have faith in the ability of human to keep innovating and striving for more, then you should be optimistic about the future.

Instead of reading all the negative headlines, try taking an optimistic perspective. The world is gradually improving, humans are amazing, and over time the share market will keep rising. Don’t miss out – you need to be in the markets to benefit from them, so take action, make a plan, get advice… Just don’t sit fearfully on the sidelines.can be depressing/

The latest GPD data is out, and at 0.2% growth in the last three months of 2025, it’s risen for three out of the past four quarters. We’re into annual growth for the first time since the third quarter of 2024, which is a hopeful signal that local conditions are improving.

The latest data shows solid increases in retail and accommodation sectors, finance and insurance, media and comms, and arts and recreation. Construction under performed, but data from January and February 2026 looks more positive for the sector, so overall the picture here in New Zealand is encouraging.

The looming concern is the global oil crisis, and the headlines seem alarming. But we’ve been reading some pretty frightening headlines every week since 2020, and we all just keep on going. What can you do in these uncertain times? The best advice is not to panic. If you have an investment strategy that’s taking you toward your financial goals, stay calm and talk to your adviser before you make any sudden moves. As ASB’s analysts point out, “the average conflict results in a very short-term drawdown of roughly 5% (using the S&P500 as a proxy), with the market recovering its losses over an average of 47 days.”

In the longer term, this fuel crisis might have an upside. If it encourages a faster shift to renewables, that will improve New Zealand’s energy security and make us less vulnerable to these oil shocks in future. ANZ is reporting more interest in EVs, and BYD says it’s had a bumper few weeks. The national grid reached a record high of 96.4% renewable in the latest data, a new record, so the decarbonisation megatrend is continuing its onward march here in New Zealand.

In response to the picture both here and abroad, the big banks have been nudging up their interest rates, leading to higher returns for savers. Term deposit rates are up marginally, but still below 4%. Returns on Zagga loans have also stayed steady, and have been consistently paying around 7%. We’re seeing rapid uptake on new opportunities, and we expect this continue throughout 2026 – particularly as momentum grows in the construction sector.

We’ve seen a noticeable increase in both the volume and quality of loan investments coming through this month, and we’re excited to be bringing these new opportunities to our investors. With strong demand and quick uptake on new listings, it’s important to be prepared so you can take advantage of opportunities as they become available.