Local Recovery Solidifies, While Global Uncertainty Continues

Lotto ads are fantastic at selling you the dream of wealth. Sometimes they talk about quitting work, taking holidays and buying houses. Or it’s something less cliché, like chartering a pirate ship for your kid or bonding with your colleagues in Antarctica. But what really sells the dream is not the pirate ship or southern borealis… It’s the freedom. That’s the real attraction of being wealthy: freedom.

There are lots of ways to think about levels of wealth, and one is by considering the six stages of wealth freedom, as set out by finance writer Nick Maggiulli. Each one is a considerable jump from the next – in both money and freedom. And the jumps get larger as you move up the ladder. Most of us start out at stage 1 and, with a bit of luck and some good planning, should reach stage 2 or 3; very few people ever make it to stage 5 or 6.

Which stage are you at now – and which other stages have you left behind?

Stage 1: Nothing to spare – very little wealth freedom

You spend as much as you earn, or more, and you have negative or very low net worth. Maybe you’ve just started working, or you’re studying, or perhaps you have high levels of personal debt. As a result, your financial freedom is low and you must watch every dollar you spend.

Stage 2: Supermarket freedom

When you no longer spend everything you earn, you gradually reach the stage of supermarket freedom. This is where you can make more choices when you shop. You can pay more for free-range eggs or fair-trade coffee without worrying that it will put a dent in your finances.

Stage 3: Restaurant freedom

When you are comfortably earning more than you spend every month, you reach the point of being able to go to a restaurant and choose anything off the menu without worrying about the price. Whether it’s a $42 steak or a $200 bottle of wine, you know your meal will not set you back financially. 

Stage 4: Travel freedom  

Once you’re earning considerably more than you’re spending, and you know your money will keep rolling in, you no longer need to worry about taking affordable holidays. Now you can travel wherever you like, fly business class, stay in whatever hotel takes your fancy, and do whatever activities you like while you’re there. You’re free to spend like that knowing your wealth will remain undiminished.

Stage 5: House freedom

You’re wealthy enough to buy the house you want in the area of your choice – another million or ten isn’t going to make much difference. You can buy some other houses, too, if you like. Why not? You’re always looking for somewhere to put your money. It’s not like you can spend it all.

Stage 6: Philanthropic freedom

Now you have so much money that you can give it away and it can dramatically change other people’s lives for the better. There’s no way you could spend all your money within your lifetime, so your main issue is planning how best to pass it to the next generation and how much good you can do with it.

Moving between stages

If you’re aiming to move up the stages, it’s important to spend appropriately for your level of wealth. If you’re in stage 1 and you spend like you’re in stage 3, you’re only going to keep going backwards into negative wealth territory. You also need to invest appropriately, balancing your risk profile with how much you can afford to lose.

Once you do reach a new stage though, why not spend more and take a few investment risks? Although lifestyle creep is often seen as a problem, if you’ve moved from stage 2 to stage 3, enjoying a nice bottle of wine with a restaurant meal is your choice. Spending more once you can afford it could make your life more enjoyable and allow you to share some of your good fortune with the people you love.

The latest GPD data is out, and at 0.2% growth in the last three months of 2025, it’s risen for three out of the past four quarters. We’re into annual growth for the first time since the third quarter of 2024, which is a hopeful signal that local conditions are improving.

The latest data shows solid increases in retail and accommodation sectors, finance and insurance, media and comms, and arts and recreation. Construction under performed, but data from January and February 2026 looks more positive for the sector, so overall the picture here in New Zealand is encouraging.

The looming concern is the global oil crisis, and the headlines seem alarming. But we’ve been reading some pretty frightening headlines every week since 2020, and we all just keep on going. What can you do in these uncertain times? The best advice is not to panic. If you have an investment strategy that’s taking you toward your financial goals, stay calm and talk to your adviser before you make any sudden moves. As ASB’s analysts point out, “the average conflict results in a very short-term drawdown of roughly 5% (using the S&P500 as a proxy), with the market recovering its losses over an average of 47 days.”

In the longer term, this fuel crisis might have an upside. If it encourages a faster shift to renewables, that will improve New Zealand’s energy security and make us less vulnerable to these oil shocks in future. ANZ is reporting more interest in EVs, and BYD says it’s had a bumper few weeks. The national grid reached a record high of 96.4% renewable in the latest data, a new record, so the decarbonisation megatrend is continuing its onward march here in New Zealand.

In response to the picture both here and abroad, the big banks have been nudging up their interest rates, leading to higher returns for savers. Term deposit rates are up marginally, but still below 4%. Returns on Zagga loans have also stayed steady, and have been consistently paying around 7%. We’re seeing rapid uptake on new opportunities, and we expect this continue throughout 2026 – particularly as momentum grows in the construction sector.

We’ve seen a noticeable increase in both the volume and quality of loan investments coming through this month, and we’re excited to be bringing these new opportunities to our investors. With strong demand and quick uptake on new listings, it’s important to be prepared so you can take advantage of opportunities as they become available.