Local Recovery Solidifies, While Global Uncertainty Continues

Welcome to the first update from Zagga for the new year.

A year of two halves

2024 was a subdued year in the property market, with higher interest rates keeping lending activity low. The result for Zagga (and across the board), as we heard from many investors over the course of the year, was a lower volume of quality loan investment opportunities.

However the mood in New Zealand’s financial markets now is “cautiously optimistic”.

We feel this caution is warranted, with unemployment still rising, more consumer spending needed and plenty of geopolitical uncertainty.

The optimism is also well-warranted – Sub 5% mortgage rates, strong dairy and commodities prices, will all contribute to increased spending.

The housing market remains a buyers’ market, with a multitude of listings and flat prices. There’s no sense of urgency or FOMO (yet), and therefore no major upward pressure on prices. It’s widely expected this recovery will begin in the second half of the year, with modest growth heading into 2026 and beyond.

The combination of lower prices and interest rates, mean property investors and developers will now have confidence to buy property at reduced prices and developers can begin to take advantage of lower rates and an increased lending appetite, with margins starting to increase.

What’s happening at Zagga?

Appetite from our investor base remains incredibly strong for new investment opportunities. Our investors are beginning to assess their options, to bolster returns ahead of term deposits maturing, and facing down the barrel of term deposits sitting around 4.52% on average.

In turn however, to remain competitive for borrowers’, Zagga’s investment returns have also been revised downwards – though still highly favourable, with current average returns expected around 7.5% p.a. – 8.5% p.a. for good quality loans.

The holidays are now behind us. With new opportunities in property investment and construction, and business owners seeking liquidity to invest in growth, Zagga’s credit team are now starting to see an increased volume of loan enquiry.

The team are currently assessing a number of loans, with new opportunities expected on the platform within the week.

While loan enquiry continues to grow, we do expect these loan investments to fund quickly, so please bear with us, while we work to deliver more to you as soon as possible.

Finally, with the new year comes new ideas and we have some exciting projects in the background, which we hope to announce over the next few months.

As always, feel free to get in touch with the team if you have any questions around investing or borrowing.

The latest GPD data is out, and at 0.2% growth in the last three months of 2025, it’s risen for three out of the past four quarters. We’re into annual growth for the first time since the third quarter of 2024, which is a hopeful signal that local conditions are improving.

The latest data shows solid increases in retail and accommodation sectors, finance and insurance, media and comms, and arts and recreation. Construction under performed, but data from January and February 2026 looks more positive for the sector, so overall the picture here in New Zealand is encouraging.

The looming concern is the global oil crisis, and the headlines seem alarming. But we’ve been reading some pretty frightening headlines every week since 2020, and we all just keep on going. What can you do in these uncertain times? The best advice is not to panic. If you have an investment strategy that’s taking you toward your financial goals, stay calm and talk to your adviser before you make any sudden moves. As ASB’s analysts point out, “the average conflict results in a very short-term drawdown of roughly 5% (using the S&P500 as a proxy), with the market recovering its losses over an average of 47 days.”

In the longer term, this fuel crisis might have an upside. If it encourages a faster shift to renewables, that will improve New Zealand’s energy security and make us less vulnerable to these oil shocks in future. ANZ is reporting more interest in EVs, and BYD says it’s had a bumper few weeks. The national grid reached a record high of 96.4% renewable in the latest data, a new record, so the decarbonisation megatrend is continuing its onward march here in New Zealand.

In response to the picture both here and abroad, the big banks have been nudging up their interest rates, leading to higher returns for savers. Term deposit rates are up marginally, but still below 4%. Returns on Zagga loans have also stayed steady, and have been consistently paying around 7%. We’re seeing rapid uptake on new opportunities, and we expect this continue throughout 2026 – particularly as momentum grows in the construction sector.

We’ve seen a noticeable increase in both the volume and quality of loan investments coming through this month, and we’re excited to be bringing these new opportunities to our investors. With strong demand and quick uptake on new listings, it’s important to be prepared so you can take advantage of opportunities as they become available.